A big shift in US AI policy appears to be on the horizon.

Initial reports indicate that President-elect Donald Trump may dramatically reshape the nation’s AI strategy.

These include Fortune reporting that Trump’s most obvious move is to “make good on his promise to repeal President Joe Biden’s year-old executive order aimed at making AI safe and secure.”

TechCrunch echoed that sentiment, saying that Trump has “repeatedly said he plans to dismantle Biden’s AI policy framework on ‘day one’ and has aligned himself with kingmakers who’ve sharply criticized all but the lightest-touch regulations.

To understand where AI policy may be headed, you need to follow the money and the power players behind it.

On Episode 123 of The Artificial Intelligence Show, Marketing AI Institute founder and CEO Paul Roetzer broke down for me the key forces shaping Trump’s emerging AI agenda.

The Silicon Valley Power Players Behind Trump’s AI Plans

While neither campaign focused much on AI during the election, several major tech figures have now emerged as influential voices that could shape the incoming administration’s approach to AI, says Roetzer.

Elon Musk contributed over $100 million to Trump’s campaign and clearly now has influence with the President-elect. Musk also has well-documented beef with OpenAI and Sam Altman, and runs his own AI company, xAI.

Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz are famed venture capitalists who backed Trump. They’re also advocates of techno-optimism, which advocates for minimal AI regulations.

Peter Thiel was one of the first Silicon Valley figures to publicly back Trump in 2016 and is the kingmaker behind the incoming Vice President, J.D. Vance. His libertarian philosophy also favors minimal government intervention, period.

“If you want to know the general technology agenda and where AI may go, you can look at some of these key players and what they have publicly stated about their beliefs,” says Roetzer. “They’re going to have an influence.”

Winners and Losers Under the New Agenda

Roetzer predicts a few winners and losers that are likely to emerge, based on the philosophies and personalities that appear to be ascendant in the Trump camp.

Likely Winners:

• Open source AI development
• The effective accelerationism (e/acc) movement
• xAI and Musk-aligned companies
• Minimal regulation advocates

Likely Losers:

• Climate-focused AI regulation
• Biden’s AI executive order
• OpenAI and Sam Altman (given Musk’s influence)
• Federal oversight efforts

You may also see aggressive counter-moves at the state level. California, in particular, could race to implement state-level AI regulations to offset reduced federal oversight.

“I would not be surprised at all if you don’t see states like California race to put some state level legislation in place,” says Roetzer.

That means companies may need to navigate an increasingly complex patchwork of state-level AI regulations. California’s massive economic influence means its rules could still impact AI companies regardless of where they’re headquartered.

There are also major questions that remain about how competing personalities and priorities will shake out. The dynamic between Trump and Musk, in particular, could prove critical given their outsized egos and influence.

“How those two get along for four years is going to be really interesting,” notes Roetzer. “Because Elon, while he may not hold some official position in the administration, is certainly going to have influence. And if he starts getting a lot of public credit for things that happen, you almost wonder if that doesn’t create some friction.”

At Social Gains, we’re keeping a close eye on these AI policy developments and how they may impact businesses. Our community focuses on practical AI tools and automations that are working right now, regardless of the regulatory environment. We’d love for you to join us in exploring how AI can drive real results for your business.